Ukususela ngoJulayi, i-RMB ye-onshore kunye ne-offshore ye-RMB yokutshintshiselana ne-dollar yase-US ibuyele ngokukhawuleza, kwaye yabetha inqanaba eliphezulu le-rebound ngo-Agasti 5. Phakathi kwabo, i-RMB ye-onshore (CNY) ixabisa i-2.3% ukusuka kwindawo ephantsi ngoJulayi 24. Nangona yawa emva kokunyuka okulandelayo, ukususela ngo-Agasti 20, izinga lokutshintshiselwa kwe-RMB ngokubhekiselele kwi-dollar yase-US lisaxabiswa nge-2% ukususela ngoJulayi 24. Ngo-Agasti I-20, izinga lokutshintshiselwa kwe-RMB ye-offshore ngokuchasene ne-dollar yase-US nayo yabetha inqaku eliphezulu ngo-Agasti 5, ixabisa i-2.3% ukusuka kwindawo ephantsi ye-3 kaJulayi.
Ukujonga phambili kwimarike yexesha elizayo, ngaba ireyithi yokutshintshiselana kwe-RMB ngokuchasene nedola yaseMelika iya kungena kumjelo onyukayo? Sikholelwa ukuba izinga lotshintshiselwano lwe-RMB lwangoku xa lithelekiswa nedola yaseMelika lixabiso eliphantsi ngenxa yokucotha koqoqosho lwase-US kunye nolindelo lokuthotywa kwenzala. Ukusuka kwimbono yokwahluka kwenqanaba lenzala phakathi kweTshayina kunye ne-United States, umngcipheko wokuhla kwexabiso elibukhali le-RMB buthathaka, kodwa kwixesha elizayo, kufuneka sibone iimpawu ezininzi zokuphucula uqoqosho lwasekhaya, kunye nokuphuculwa kwezoqoqosho. iiprojekthi ezinkulu kunye neeprojekthi zangoku, phambi kokuba i-RMB exchange rate ngokuchasene ne-dollar yaseMelika iya kungena kumjikelo wokuxabisa. Okwangoku, izinga lotshintshiselwano lwe-RMB xa lithelekiswa nedola yaseMelika linokuhla linyuka kumacala omabini.
Uqoqosho lwase-US luyehla, kwaye i-RMB iyayixabisa.
Ukusuka kwidatha yezoqoqosho epapashiweyo, uqoqosho lwase-US lubonise iimpawu ezicacileyo zobuthathaka, nto leyo eyakha yabangela iinkxalabo zemarike malunga nokudodobala kwe-US. Nangona kunjalo, ngokujonga kwizalathisi ezinje ngosetyenziso kunye neshishini lenkonzo, umngcipheko wokudodobala koqoqosho lwase-US usephantsi kakhulu, kwaye idola yaseMelika ayikafumani bunzima bokungabikho kwemali.
Imarike yemisebenzi ihlile, kodwa ayizukwehla. Inani lemisebenzi emitsha engeyiyo eyezolimo ngoJulayi lehle kakhulu laya kutsho kwi-114,000 inyanga nenyanga, kwaye izinga labantu abangaphangeliyo linyuke laya kutsho kwi-4.3% ngaphaya koko bekulindelwe, nto leyo eyabangela ukudodobala koqoqosho "Sam Rule". Ngelixa imarike yemisebenzi ihlile, inani labantu abadendwayo alikapholi, ikakhulu ngenxa yokuba inani labantu abaqeshwayo liyehla, nto leyo ebonisa ukuba uqoqosho lukwinqanaba lokuqala lokuphola kwaye alukangeni kwimeko yokudodobala koqoqosho.
Iindlela zokuqeshwa kwemizi-mveliso yemveliso neenkonzo zase-US zahlukile. Kwelinye icala, kukho uxinzelelo olukhulu ekucothweni kokuqeshwa kwemveliso. Ukujonga kwisalathiso sengqesho se-US ISM yokuvelisa i-PMI, ekubeni i-Fed yaqala ukunyusa izinga lenzala ekuqaleni kwe-2022, isalathisi sibonise ukuhla. Ukususela ngoJulayi 2024, isalathisi sasiyi-43.4%, ukuhla kwepesenti ye-5.9 yeepesenti ukusuka kwinyanga edlulileyo. Kwelinye icala, ukuqeshwa kwishishini leenkonzo kuhlala kunokomelela. Ukuqwalasela isalathiso sengqesho se-US ISM engeyiyo yokuvelisa i-PMI, ukususela ngoJulayi 2024, isalathiso sasiyi-51.1%, inyuke ngeepesenti ze-5 ukusuka kwinyanga edlulileyo.
Ngokuchasene nemvelaphi yokucotha koqoqosho lwase-US, isalathiso sedola yaseMelika siye sawa kakhulu, idola yaseMelika yehla kakhulu xa ithelekiswa nezinye iimali, kwaye i-hedge funds 'izikhundla ezinde kwidola yaseMelika yehla kakhulu. Idatha ekhutshwe yi-CFTC ibonise ukuba kwiveki ye-13 ka-Agasti, indawo yengxowa-mali ende kwi-dollar yase-US yayiyi-18,500 kuphela amaqashiso, kwaye kwikota yesine ka-2023 yayingaphezu kwamaqashiso angama-20,000.
Ixesha lokuposa: Sep-14-2024